Florida LBM Experts’ Outlook: Chaos Now, Resilient Scrambling Later
- Craig Webb
- 23 hours ago
- 5 min read
Four LBM executives with deep links to Florida all had the same one-word answer when asked what they felt they could count on going forward: Chaos.
But the quartet wasn’t daunted by the constant changes in tariffs and continuing worries over homebuilding. Rather, they said the resilience they’ve shown during past challenges, combined with a core belief in America, made them confident they will survive and thrive.
“Trump is [about] the Art of the Deal, and I think part of the Art of the Deal is chaos,” said Jim Kerkvliet, co-owner of Parliment Building Products in Jacksonville, FL. “So I think that we’re going to continue to see, whether it’s in trade or whether it’s in global relations, I think we’re going to see chaos.”
Joining Kerkvliet for the Aug. 21 discussion during the Florida Building Material Association’s annual Building Products Expo were Shyam Reddy, President and CEO of BlueLinx; Danny Bachman, Co-COO at Dixie Plywood; and Deanna Jenkins, now in her 21st year as President of Orlando-based Thomas Lumber. Don Magruder, CEO of RoMac Building Supply, organized the panel and asked the questions. (RoMac's video of the session is at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6gAqrhD-oHM.)
'Choppy' Times Ahead
Bachmann said he expects to see some rebound in September and October from an off-budget August but felt that “business is going to be choppy for the upcoming year” with opportunities arising from those who can find ways to better serve the customer. Kirkvliet said business is up by single-digits from this point last year, but sales to lumberyards is down just under 4%. Reddy said conditions vary among BlueLinx’s 67 distribution centers. Jenkins described these days as a soft time for sales that could last until 2027, but she also stressed that LBM would get through this, and should use this time to concentrate on long-term conceerns like recruiting young workers.
Amid all the talk about chaos, confidence in self and country stood out.
“Take a step back and look at the the arc of history here in the United States,” Reddy said. “No matter the challenge, the fact is the DNA of our country is very resilient and people take advantage of opportunity. … So the market, although I see it generally being kind of soft later this year and potentially next year, there's still opportunities for all of us to grow.”
“As far as resilience goes, we can all hold our heads up high,” Jenkins said, “because it does come back, it does correct itself, it does run in cycles. And I've seen it before.”
Consolidation, Economic Concerns
Reddy said the biggest threat he sees is disintermediation—getting cut out of the supply chain through consolidation in the customer base and through manufacturer opportunities to sell directly to builders. "It puts you in the position of really articulating your value proposition and adapting, adjusting and figuring out how you can be more valuable,” he said.
While agreeing with Shyam about consolidation’s impact, Bachman said the potential for a recession is Dixie Plywood’s biggest challenge. He recalled how, in 2009 during the Great Recession, he cut a third of his staff, froze pay, and suspended the employer match on 401(k) plans. It took five years for the 10% unemployment rate in 2009 to fall to 4%, he noted.
Alluding to recent purchases of pro dealer networks by The Home Depot and Lowe’s, Bachman said, “This puts them in a position to be in the pro business, to compete with the folks in this room. … Do I think it could get worse? Yes. It could it could get worse.”
Jenkins and Kirkvliet also brought up economic uncertainy as threats. “It’s led to a lot of choppiness in the market—one day it's really good,, the next day it's really bad,” Kirkvliet said.
Lesser Worries: Tariffs and Workers
Tariffs in general haven’t caused headaches for the panelists because most building products used in American homes come from domestic factories (Canadian lumber is subject to anti-dumping and countervailing duties, not tariffs.) Kirkvliet sells steel, so he keeps his eye on tariffs there, and Jenkins is concerned about cedar imports. “Fasteners surprisingly hasn't gone up yet as much as we thought they would,” Jenkins added. “But it's a moving target.”
For Reddy, one side challenge from tariffs involves whether and when to make investments. Not knowing how the tariff regime will end up could potentially hinder future spending, he said, concluding: “Once we get some certainty, then we'll know how to manage through it.”
None of the panelists described the crackdown on undocumented immigrants as a problem for their businesses. They agreed that the shortage of construction workers will drive innovation across the supply chain. How about using tariff revenue to promote jobs in construction? Reddy suggested.
The panelists said finding truck drivers and other workers is less of a challenge today than it was during COVID, but they also are operating differently today.
Bachman noted the company changed to an employee-owned ESOP structure in 2019. “It gets everybody pulling on the rope in the same direction,” he said.
A History of Resilience
Jenkins recalled New Year’s Day 2008, amid the Great Recession, when she laid off three workers. That started a year in which Thomas Lumber shrank from 48 employees at the start to 24 by Dec. 31. Today, Thomas still has 24 workers. “We learned real quick how to be lean and how to be efficient,” she said. “And through these processes we become better. That's why we become stronger, because we've been through this.”
“I'm a son of immigrants,” Reddy said. My parents came here in search of the American dream. They told me Gandhi gave us the ability to pursue the American dream, and Doctor King gave us the ability to live out the American Dream, and we were taught to live our life to earn our U.S. citizenship each and every day.
“And so, from my perspective, if you look at the history of America, we have encountered some of the toughest times, what a young country could experience, “Reddy continued. “… Whether it was 9/11, Katrina, the pandemic, we have always come out stronger. And even certain cities where we thought the real estate market cratered, it came out stronger.
“So I believe, I really fundamentally believe, no matter what conditions are thrown our way, we will come out stronger. As chaotic or as uncertain as a may be,, I promise you, I'm not betting against America. No thank you.”